Wavering Conservatives Should Vote Tactically.. For Newt

By Chuck Winn

Newt’s momentum out of South Carolina has stalled, making Florida a close, fiercely contested two-way contest.

Rick Santorum, an attractive, viable candidate, is an extreme long shot for even second place. A vote for Rick will probably give the state to Romney and mortally wound Newt who will still finish a strong second.

A Gingrich Florida victory will provide Rick additional opportunities for a breakout in the 45 remaining state primaries and caucuses to be conducted through the end of June. A victory for Newt will also likely send the establishment scrambling for a new candidate, with some possibly even turning to Rick Santorum.

Santorum would have a far better chance under those circumstances than as a third place Florida finisher against Romney. A vote in Florida for Gingrich by a Santorum fan will in no way be abandoning Rick.

Establishment power brokers initially sought to overcome Mitt Romney’s unpopularity with the Republican base by gaining positional advantage. This was to be achieved by a combination of “front loading,” a tactic of scheduling the traditional first primaries ridiculously early, contrary to Republican National Committee rules, combined with huge media expenditures.

This strategy was designed to eke out modest pluralities in the early multi-candidate contests while exhausting resources of the other contenders. Romney, however, failed to win even a third of Republican voters. The single exception was New Hampshire, where he was a regional favorite son and had an organization in place for 6 years to supplement his huge war chest.

Earlier in Iowa, Romney finished second with a modest 27%, in spite of massively outspending Rick Santorum’s meagerly resourced campaign. In South Carolina, Mitt was decisively defeated by Newt Gingrich, polling 28% to 41%.

Recognizing that Florida is too large for retail politics, Romney has desperately adjusted his strategy by relying on an avalanche of distorted, misleading and extremely negative advertising to win.

A Florida victory is likely to provide Romney momentum towards the nomination that will be almost impossible to stop. Some might argue that Mitt will recognize how indispensable Main Street Republicans, Tea Party and 9-12 conservatives are to a November victory. However, it is highly unrealistic to assume prominent figures who are favorites of the conservative base will get any further than the periphery of a Romney Administration.

More importantly, Romney’s business transactions as Bain’s CEO, his Cayman Islands investments and Swiss bank accounts have raised very valid concerns that must be examined in greater detail.

Sarah Palin was right when she said that the GOP nomination process needs to continue. Any wavering Florida conservatives, especially those backing Rick Santorum, should vote tactically on Tuesday – for Newt Gingrich.

Chuck Winn is a Martin County Conservative Republican who has been active in property rights, pro-life and other values issues and multiple conservative campaigns. A national security analyst, Chuck completed a 32-year Army career where he advanced from private to colonel. A Vietnam veteran Chuck served in senior operational and strategic planning assignments in the Pentagon and with U.S. Forces Korea.

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