What Herman Cain’s Stunning Victory Really Means
By Tom Tillison
Florida Political Press
Herman Cain pulled off a major upset by winning the Florida Presidency 5 Straw Poll, doing so in a very convincing manner. The former Godfather’s Pizza CEO captured 37 percent of the vote, while Perry took 15 percent and Romney took 14 percent.
I can make the claim that I accurately predicted the top three finish well before the totals were announce, except for one minor detail… the correct order. I had the finish as Romney, Perry and then Cain.
Of course, had I factored in the response Cain got everywhere he went Friday, including the near pandemonium that ensued when he visited the P5 Tea Party Hospitality Suite Friday morning, it may have given me reason to be more optimistic, but I suppose I may have over estimated the power and influence of the ‘establishment’. Or did I? More on that in a bit.
Others questioned me putting Romney at the top, reasoning that there didn’t seem to be much support for him among the P5 delegates. I responded that Perry had done considerable damage to himself in Thursday’s debate and there were a lot of voters who were not yet quite convinced that he was their guy, but were leaning hard in his direction that simply walked away after that. Where I erred is in that I assumed these supporters, many of whom make up the base of the GOP party machine, would drift naturally toward Romney.
As for Perry’s status now, the media will continue to peddle that it was Perry’s poor debating skills that did him in. The truth is his decision to stand behind his actions as Governor of Texas to offer in state tuition to illegal immigrants and refer to those who believe we are a nation of laws, not of men as “heartless” is the real culprit – but you won’t hear much about that in the media.
In reality, Perry is in trouble. Yesterday’s results were not a knock out blow by any means and he has plenty of time to recover, however, I predict you’ve seen the last of Rick Perry as front runner. He seemed content to run on his boyish good looks and that devilish little smile, appealing to the ‘American Idol’ component in far too many of us – which may have worked in a different era, but not in these days of the tea party.
So what does Herman Cain’s victory mean? That will depend on the bounce he gets in the national polls. The media will still be reluctant to embrace Cain, but he’s just gotten a lot harder to ignore. To elevate his candidacy to the next level, though, he must continue to climb in the polls over the next few weeks.
Romney will probably benefit most by Cain’s showing yesterday as he should reclaim the title of frontrunner, but such a development will be short lived. Despite all the money he has raised and the fact that he has been running for President since 2007, he just doesn’t satisfy the hunger on the right.
Perhaps, the most important meaning of Herman Cain’s win is the clear sign that regardless of who the media and the party establishment push at us, we the people will have a say in who the Republican nominee will be for President.
Which brings me back to the earlier comment about the GOP party base. There has been lots of talk in the media about a split in the Republican Party between the ‘old guard’ and the ‘new’ grassroots element. A split that does exist and was very evident to anyone walking the halls of the Peabody Hotel the past few days.
However, this split is not nearly as destructive as the Left may hope, nor is it as simple as I just stated. There is a growing faction of “in-betweeners” who’ve come to see the tea party as non-threatening and see the virtues of the movement as a good thing for the party, those who’ve been around long enough to witness first hand the frailties of the existing party ‘machine’.
I submit that these “in-between’ers” have learned from the tea party that party loyalty to chosen candidates can be bucked and the sky will not fall. And this is the faction that joined hands with the tea party yesterday and propelled Herman Cain to victory.
For now, party loyalty is still critical for political career aspirations, particularly at the state and local levels, but the time’s they are fast a’changing. And that’s why the aforementioned split is not nearly as destructive as the Left wants it to be because the most obvious of the frailties of the ‘old guard’ is it’s desperate need to survive.
That refined ability to bend to the prevailing winds of public opinion, as Adam Hasner so aptly displays, just as a willow gently bends in the spring air. And that ensures that the ‘old guard’ will only resist to the point that their relevancy remains assured.
As a dear friend said to me as we discussed the overwhelming response Thursday and Friday to the P5 Tea Party Hospitality Suite; “Built it and they will come”.
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You know what else Herman Cain’s win means? The Sarah Palin fans can quit bellyaching about her getting in the race and jump on the Cain Train.
On Friday night at P5 just after Herman had stolen the show at CPAC I walked over to Suite Tea, still undecided who I would vote for in the P5 straw poll. Person after person that I ran into said I am voting for Herman. The amazing thing was the diversity of these people, party insiders, elected officials, tea party members, you name it. When I finally reached Suite Tea, I ran into a person that I greatly respect, one of the most devoted, hard working individuals in both the tea party movement and in OCREC. She convinced me to vote my heart. I did, I voted for Herman. What became clear to me at that moment was that people were going to vote their heart the next day, and they were voting for Herman! A political earthquake of magnitude 10 was about to occur!
I was so much convinced that I came home Friday night and sent Herman an email to that effect. For anyone present at P5 they witnessed something that simply was not conveyed on TV….wild enthusiasm for Herman when he spoke! And, It came from all corners of the hall and from all types of constituencies. That was the icing on the cake. I knew he had won.
This morning the pundits like William Kristol are saying, this was a vote against the other candidates. I beg to differ! This was a vote from the heart. His message is resonating! His charisma is overwhelming! When people hear Herman speak, they simply fall in love with him. Florida, be proud of what you did yesterday, We have given the rest of the country the opportunity to hear Herman speak and demonstrate that he can win. With that, we have given the rest of the country the courage to vote their heart!.
Great article, Tom. I think the most salient point that you made was that Cain’s win shows that (at least some) voters are still thinking for themselves, in spite of the barrage of propaganda in the MSM. Perry’s big mouth will do him in. Romney’s inconsistency and lack of any real ideas will hopefully come to the forefront as well. That should leave some of the more down-to-Earth, sincere candidates for our consideration. If we elect Romney or Perry, nothing will change. We might as well leave Obama in office.
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What a wonderful event! Suite Tea was our first foray into this realm and it could not have gone better. Kudos to everybody involved, I am so pround to call you friends!
Herman Cain’s victory will, hopefully, set the party establishment on their rear ends! Far too long have they shoved one RINO candidate after another at us. Far too long have they ignored our pleas to live up to the Conservative platform and live within the Constitution. Far too long have they disregarded the Tea Party Movement and our vision for a prosperous nation. But NO more!
While I narrowed it down to two (Newt and Cain), I had a hard time choosing right up until the second I colored in the bubble. I voted for Newt but am pleased with the outcome! As long as it wasn’t Romney, Perry, or Huntsman I know we showed the preponderance of establishment-type’s that we are SERIOUS about this! Good work to EVERYBODY and the best of luck to Herman Cain!
Tom:
Yes, “we the people will have a say in who the Republican nominee will be for President” is the key point that the MSM seems to forget and something that the “in-between’ers” are learning fast.
Great article and I know that you were there firsthand to witness the events as they took place. Keep your powder dry and I’ll see you on the trail to Election Day 2012.
Cain speaks from the heart, and the victory in the straw poll showed voters voted with their hearts. At the same time, they rejected politics as usual and validated the citizen movement to protect our liberties and reject the tyranny of progressivism.
Tom,
You guys did a great job with the Suite Tea and we appreciate all of your hard word. I am glad people voted for who they wanted to win and not who they think is the most electable. I for one am sick and tired of a selected few talking heads telling us who can win and who can’t. Obama was certainly very electable and we how that’s working for us. Standing on principle is what America needs.
My wife spend some time in the hotel lobby at the Peabody Thurday and spoke with many folks. She called me when she was leaving and said “Herman is going to win the poll”. About everyone she talked to said they were voting for Herman Cain. The rest of America needs to now follow our lead here in Florida and vote their conscience and put a citizen candidate like Herman Cain in the WhiteHouse.
Herman Cain is THE solution in 2012!!
Great choice, Florida. There’s no one better qualified to restore our country’s future and the American Dream than one who has lived it. Herman Cain 2012!
this was a great article except for your unwarranted slam on Adam Hasner. He won his straw poll fair and square too, just lilke Herman did, he was working the crowd all week. I wish you had just written a nice article praising Herman Cain and the hard work of so many great patriot activists.
I voted for Hasner in the straw poll and plan to vote for him next August. That’s fine you like Miller but you do your candidate no favors with unfair petty remarks like that.
Herman Cain’s win is exactly what our party needed. My wife and I went to P5 pretty certain we’d vote for Herman Cain. But like many we spoke with, we were torn between Santorum and Cain.
On Saturday, Herman Cain delivered a rousing speech filled with confidence and specific plans for fixing problems on the National level. Still, we both were persuaded by Rick Santorum’s performance on the debates and in his speeches, and we voted for him. When Cain’s victory was announced, we were ecstatic. Cain is a great pick! I think we were among many Santorum voters who reveled in Cain’s victory.
The values Cain (and Santorum) represent are good for the party, and good for America. It’s going to take the MSM awhile to catch on that GOP voters aren’t waiting to be told who to vote for.
P5 was a great event!
George, this is an opinion piece and I was making an analogy between the politics of old and a new era in this country… it may be unfortunate for those who support Hasner, however, the comparison was made because, in my opinion, he fits the mold.